From inception in February 2008 through year-end 2010, Exploration Insights' performance was strong, returning an average gain of 173% on the unsold positions and a gain of 319% on positions held at year-end. In 2011, the mining sector, and particularly the junior sector as measured by the Junior Gold Miners Index (GDXJ), collapsed, falling 26% in 2011, 23% in 2012, and a further 59% in 2013. By comparison, the Exploration Insights portfolio showed a loss of 2% in 2011, was down 14% in 2012, and off 18% in 2013.
For 2014, mining and metals were down again, with the Gold Bug Index (HUI) off ~18% (~38% from the 2014 high) and the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index (TXGM) down ~15% on the year (~26% from the 2014 high). For our purposes here at EI, the Van Ecke Junior Gold Index (GDXJ) is probably the closest proxy for our portfolio. The GDXJ also had another bad year: off ~25% and down ~45% from its July peak. Worse, the GDXJ has now fallen a remarkable 86% from its high set in early 2011.
The unweighted performance of the Exploration Insights portfolio for 2014 was a positive 18%. Our strong performance reflects the sale of a few companies that had made metal discoveries prior to 2014, and a strong discipline to sell companies when results do not meet our investment thesis.
2015 was a dismal year for miners, metals, and nearly all commodities and the major markets. The Bloomberg Commodity index was off 26%, metal demand was down 5.1%, and base metal prices off 25 to 30%. The precious metal indexes were also down (HUI -32%, GDXJ -20%) while the TSX Venture exchange hit an all time low. The Exploration Insights portfolio finally succumbed to the bear market, showing an unweighted loss of 6%.
In November, our cautious strategy turned somewhat more aggressive towards gold producers and explorers, with the aim of positioning ourselves for the future by owning solid companies and assets rather than betting on a rising tide. In December, Exploration Insights doubled its research capabilities by bringing Joe Mazumdar into play. We did so because we thought 2016 would prove to be the year to actively buy the few high quality deposits, mines, and management teams available.
The strategy paid off: we added three mid-tier gold producers and a couple of explorers before the end of 2015 and, by December 2016, we had actively recycled our portfolio, closing 23 positions while adding 20 new positions, resulting in 24 open positions. The open positions provided us a 63% average return, while the realized gain for our closed positions was 107%.
Success in a good market can be biased if the performance is not compared to benchmarks; this avoids the tendency to confuse intelligence with a “bull market”. Our analysis indicates that our open and closed positions outperformed their respective benchmarks by 60% and 74%. Furthermore, our investment strategy bore fruit, with majors acquiring five of the companies in our portfolio.
In 2017, we see a need to move down the food chain into earlier stage projects that could develop into a significant discovery. This approach means higher risk and higher reward plays that will require careful analysis of exploration results and a commitment to cut bait quickly if results fail to meet our investment thesis. By applying this process consistently, we hope to continue to reap returns that exceed the benchmarks.
Looking forward to a profitable 2017!
That’s the way we see it,
Joe Mazumdar and Brent Cook
PS: If you want to be part of another successful year of investing in the junior mining sector, subscribe now.